Global Liquidity Trends, Ethereum’s $4K Target, and the September Warning: What I Learned This Week

 

✍️ My Market Takeaways – July 28, 2025


Over the weekend, I went through some macro and crypto trend analyses and here’s what I found most interesting — a mix of historical seasonality, institutional moves, and upcoming risks:

🔹 1. Global Liquidity Index Still Supports a Bullish August


The Global Liquidity Index perfectly predicted the July rally, and it seems like August may follow suit. Historically, the post-halving year shows strong seasonality in July and August.

→ This aligns with what we saw in both 2017 and 2021.

🔹 2. Caution in September


Multiple signals are flashing a warning for September. The liquidity index is showing early signs of topping out, and as history suggests, September tends to be weak for both Bitcoin and equities.

→ I’m planning to reduce risk or hedge before the month kicks in.

🔹 3. Strong USD = Risk for Crypto


If the U.S. Dollar Index strengthens again, it could apply downward pressure on risk assets. Fed’s rate decision will be key. A delay in rate cuts could limit upside in August rallies.

🔹 4. BTC Looking “Expensive” Near Cycle Peak


One key insight I liked was about Bitcoin trading above its 200-day EMA — considered “expensive” historically. There might be a retest or return to that average before any major leg up.

→ Building some dry powder (cash) for that opportunity.

🔹 5. $9B BTC Sell-off Was Absorbed


A Satoshi-era wallet dumped 80,000 BTC (~$9 billion), yet the market only dipped ~4%. That shows how deep Bitcoin’s liquidity has become.

→ Another reason I’m not panic-selling any dips.

🔹 6. Ethereum Could Target $4,000


The ETH chart looks robust. More importantly, BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF has already passed $10 billion AUM and recorded 16 consecutive days of net inflows.

→ This could be the start of the “ETH cycle.” I’m long.

🔹 7. Altcoin Market Warning Signs


Open interest in altcoins is rising rapidly, suggesting increased leverage. This could lead to liquidations and high volatility. Also, the staking withdrawal queue for ETH is growing, hinting at some profit-taking ahead.

🔹 8. Solana Needs to Hold $160


SOL got rejected near the $200 zone again. If it breaks below the $160 mid-range, downside opens up. However, if ETH ETF continues attracting flows, SOL ETF speculation could come next.

🔹 9. Macro: Fiat Debasement and Deficits


The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to balloon, which could increase money supply. This is long-term bullish for S&P 500 and Bitcoin alike.

→ Risk assets may benefit from the eventual inflation impulse.

📊 My Personal Strategy Right Now

  1. Holding ETH and watching $4,000 target.

  2. SOL: Waiting for confirmation above $180 before re-entering.

  3. Cash in hand for September dip.

  4. Avoiding altcoins with high leverage spikes.

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